Impact of comorbidities on hospitalised Syrian patients with COVID-19: a retrospective study.

OBJECTIVES: This study aims to compare the clinical manifestations, laboratory findings, outcomes and overall survival time of patients with COVID-19 with and without comorbidities. DESIGN: Retrospective design. SETTING: This study was undertaken at two hospitals in Damascus. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 515 Syrian patients met the inclusion criterion, laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 infection following the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Exclusion criteria were suspected and probable cases that were not confirmed with a positive reverse transcription-PCR assay, and patients who self-discharged from the hospital against medical advice. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: First, assess the impacts of comorbidities on COVID-19 infection in four areas (clinical manifestations, laboratory findings, severity and outcomes). Second, calculate the overall survival time for patients with COVID-19 with comorbidities. RESULTS: Of 515 patients included, 316 (61.4%) were male and 347 (67.4%) had at least one coexisting chronic disease. Patients with comorbidities compared with no comorbidities were more vulnerable to poor outcomes such as severe infection (32.0% vs 9.5%, p<0.001), severe complications (34.6% vs 9.5%, p<0.001), the need for mechanical ventilation (28.8% vs 7.7%, p<0.001) and death (32.0% vs 8.3%, p<0.001). Multiple logistic regression showed that age ≥65 years old, positive smoking history, having ≥2 comorbidities and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease were risk factors linked to severe COVID-19 infection in patients with comorbidities. Overall survival time was lower among patients with comorbidities (vs no comorbidities), patients with ≥2 comorbidities (vs one comorbidity), and patients with hypertension, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, malignancy or obesity (vs other comorbidities) (p<0.05). CONCLUSION: This study revealed that COVID-19 infection had poor outcomes among those with comorbidities. Severe complications, mechanical ventilation usage and death were more prevalent among patients with comorbidities compared with those with no comorbidities.

The forgotten threat of cholera in Syria.

Cholera is an ancient disease that persists as an issue of public health in many conflict-affected countries worldwide. Cholera is a diarrheal infection caused by ingested water or food contaminated with the bacterium Vibrio cholerae. On 10 September 2022, the Ministry of Health in Syria declared a cholera outbreak. Poor water and sanitation systems, disease surveillance breakdown, the collapse of the health system, and deteriorated socioeconomic conditions are potential risk factors for the outbreak's spread. Identifying the context-related factors associated with the spread of disease is a core to developing practical response mechanisms. In this study, we suggested a multisectoral approach that addresses context-specific elements contributing to the cholera outbreak spread in Syria; public health determinants, geopolitics, risk factors, and pandemic fatigue.

Prevalence of internet addiction among Syrian undergraduate medical students.

The purpose of this study is to determine the prevalence and risk factors for internet addiction disorder among Syrian medical students. Syrian medical students from 8 different universities participated in an online cross-sectional questionnaire study between May 13 and June 16, 2022. DASS-21 Depression, Anxiety, Stress Scale, and Internet Addiction Test were the 3 main determinants of the questionnaire. One thousand nine hundred fifty-three medical students from 8 different Syrian universities have participated in our cross-sectional. Half of the participants were from the Syrian private and Damascus universities. 62.1% were females, and most participants had good academic degrees (70-90/100). Sixty-nine percent of the study participants thought that COVID19 increased internet use rates. The Internet Addiction Scale's average score was 33.48 ±â€…16.29 (1-100). The total young internet addiction test score was high among medical students from the faculty of medicine university, students from Damascus University, males, smokers, and medical students with lower academic credentials than other subgroups. Both the relationship between internet addiction and DASS-21 subgroups and the correlation between DASS-21 subgroups were statistically significant. Our research showed that internet addiction was widespread among Syrian medical students, particularly when used more for entertainment than educational purposes. Additionally, it was linked to poor academic degrees in the exams at the university and mental health conditions, including depression, anxiety, and stress.

"They cannot afford to feed their children and the advice is to stay home. How‥?": A qualitative study of community experiences of COVID-19 response efforts across Syria.

INTRODUCTION: COVID-19 highlighted the importance of meaningful engagement between communities and health authorities. This is particularly challenging in conflict-affected countries such as Syria, where social protection and food security needs can hinder adherence to non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and vaccine uptake. This study explored community perspectives of COVID-19 and health authority responses across the three main areas of control in Syria, i.e. Syrian government-controlled areas (GCA), autonomous administration-controlled areas (AACA), and opposition-controlled areas (OCA). METHODS: We conducted a qualitative study, interviewing 22 purposively-sampled Syrians accessing health services in AACA, GCA, or OCA in 2021 to provide approximately equal representation by governance area and gender. We analysed data thematically using deductive and inductive coding. FINDINGS: Interviewees in all areas described how their fears of COVID-19 and willingness to adhere to NPIs decreased as their local COVID-19 epidemics progressed and NPIs disrupted access to household essentials such as work and food. Community-level responses were minimal and ad hoc, so most people focused on personal or household protective efforts and many mentioned relying on their faith for comfort. Misinformation and vaccine hesitancy were common in all areas, linked to lack of transparency from and mistrust of local health authorities and information sources. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic has increased health actors' need to engage with communities to control disease spread, yet most NPIs implemented in Syria were inappropriate and adherence decreased as the pandemic progressed. This was exemplified by lockdowns and requirements to self-isolate, despite precarious reliance on daily wages, no subsidies for lost income, individual self-reliance, and mistrust/weak communication between communities and health authorities. We found minimal community engagement efforts, consisting entirely of informing with no efforts to consult, involve, collaborate, or empower. This contributed to failures of health actors to contextualise interventions in ways that respected community understandings and needs.

Commitment to protective measures during the COVID-19 pandemic in Syria: A nationwide cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 continues to impose itself on all populations of the world. Given the slow pace of vaccination in the developing world and the absence of effective treatments, adherence to precautionary infection control measures remains the best way to prevent the COVID-19 pandemic from spiraling out of control. In this study, we aim to evaluate the extent to which the Syrian population adheres to these measures and analyze the relationship between demographic variables and adherence. METHODS: This cross-sectional study took place in Syria between January 17 and March 17, 2021. A structured self-administered questionnaire was used to collect the data. The questionnaire was distributed in both electronic and printed versions. Our sample consisted of 7531 individuals. Collected data were analyzed using SPSS v.25. The chi-square test was used to address the correlation between adherence and demographic variables. RESULTS: Of the 10083 reached out, only 8083 responded, and 7531 included in the final analysis with an effective response rate of 74.7%. Of them, 4026 (53.5%) were women, 3984 (52.9%) were single, and 1908 (25.3%) had earned university degrees. 5286 (70.25) were in the high level of adherence category to protective measures. Statistically significant differences were documented when investigating the correlation between commitment to preventive measures and age, sex, marital status, financial status, employment, and educational attainment. Furthermore, those who believed that COVID-19 poses a major risk to them, or society were more committed to preventive measures than those who did not. CONCLUSION: The participants in this study generally showed a high level of adherence to the preventive measures compared to participants in other studies from around the world, with some concerns regarding the sources of information they depend on. Nationwide awareness campaigns should be conducted and focus on maintaining, if not expanding, this level of commitment, which would mitigate the pandemic's impact on Syrian society.

Development of a Prediction Model for the Management of Noncommunicable Diseases Among Older Syrian Refugees Amidst the COVID-19 Pandemic in Lebanon.

Importance: Older Syrian refugees have a high burden of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) and economic vulnerability. Objectives: To develop and internally validate a predictive model to estimate inability to manage NCDs in older Syrian refugees, and to describe barriers to NCD medication adherence. Design, Setting, and Participants: This nested prognostic cross-sectional study was conducted through telephone surveys between September 2020 and January 2021. All households in Lebanon with Syrian refugees aged 50 years or older and who received humanitarian assistance from a nongovernmental organization were invited to participate. Refugees who self-reported having chronic respiratory disease (CRD), diabetes, history of cardiovascular disease (CVD), or hypertension were included in the analysis. Data were analyzed from November 2021 to March 2022. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome was self-reported inability to manage any NCD (including CRD, CVD, diabetes, or hypertension). Predictors of inability to manage any NCD were assessed using logistic regression models. The model was internally validated using bootstrapping techniques, which gave an estimate of optimism. The optimism-adjusted discrimination is presented using the C statistic, and calibration of the model is presented using calibration slope (C slope). Results: Of 3322 older Syrian refugees, 1893 individuals (median [IQR] age, 59 [54-65] years; 1089 [57.5%] women) reported having at least 1 NCD, among whom 351 (10.6% overall; 18.6% of those with ≥1 NCD) had CRD, 781 (23.7% overall; 41.4% of those with ≥1 NCD) had diabetes, 794 (24.1% overall; 42.2% of those with ≥1 NCD) had history of CVD, and 1388 (42.3% overall; 73.6% of those with ≥1 NCD) had hypertension. Among individuals with NCDs, 387 participants (20.4%) were unable to manage at least 1 of their NCDs. Predictors for inability to manage NCDs were age, nonreceipt of cash assistance, household water insecurity, household food insecurity, and having multiple chronic diseases, with an adjusted C statistic of 0.650 (95% CI, 0.620-0.676) and C slope of 0.871 (95% CI, 0.729-1.023). The prevalence of nonadherence to medication was 9.2%, and the main reasons for nonadherence were unaffordability of medication (40.8%; 95% CI, 33.4%-48.5%) and the belief that they no longer required the medication after feeling better (22.4%; 95% CI, 16.4%-29.3%). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cross-sectional study, the predictors of inability to manage NCDs among older Syrian refugees in Lebanon were mainly related to financial barriers. Context-appropriate assistance is required to overcome financial barriers and enable equitable access to medication and health care.

Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), anger and mental health of school students in Syria after nine years of conflict: a large-scale school-based study.

BACKGROUND: The Syrian crisis has entered its ninth year with many being affected by the war. This is the largest-scale study that aims to evaluate the psychological profile of secondary school students in Syria. METHODS: This is a cross-sectional study in schools in Damascus, Syria. The surveys assessed working habits, smoking, war exposure, grades, socioeconomic status (SES), social support, health-related quality of life (HRQL), post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), problematic anger, and other parameters. RESULTS: This study included 1369 students of which 53% suffered from PTSD and 62% from problematic anger. Around 46% declared a fair or worse general health and 61% had moderate or severe mental health. Only 9.3% did not report exposure to any war-related variable. War exposure had an impact on PTSD, anger, and HRQL, but not on students' grades. Smoking, having consanguineous parents, and working did not have a clear association with grades or anger. Social support weakly reduced PTSD and anger scores. Interestingly, working was associatedwith lowerPTSD scores but was associated with a worse physical component of HRQL. CONCLUSION: This is the largest study on school students in Syria that reports the psychological ramifications of war. Although the direct effects of war could not be precisely described, the high burden of PTSD and anger distress was a strong reflection of the chronic mental distress.

Syndromic surveillance of respiratory infections during protracted conflict: experiences from northern Syria 2016-2021.

OBJECTIVE: Northern Syria faces a large burden of influenza-like illness (ILI) and severe acute respiratory illness (SARI). This study aimed to investigate the trends of Early Warning and Response Network (EWARN) reported ILI and SARI in northern Syria between 2016 and 2021 and the potential impact of SARS-CoV-2. METHODS: We extracted weekly EWARN data on ILI/ SARI and aggregated cases and consultations into 4-week intervals to calculate case positivity. We conducted a seasonal-trend decomposition to assess case trends in the presence of seasonal fluctuations. RESULTS: It was observed that 4-week aggregates of ILI cases (n = 5,942,012), SARI cases (n = 114,939), ILI case positivity, and SARI case positivity exhibited seasonal fluctuations with peaks in the winter months. ILI and SARI cases in individuals aged ≥5 years surpassed those in individuals aged <5 years in late 2019. ILI cases clustered primarily in Aleppo and Idlib, whereas SARI cases clustered in Aleppo, Idlib, Deir Ezzor, and Hassakeh. SARI cases increased sharply in 2021, corresponding with a severe SARS-CoV-2 wave, compared with the steady increase in ILI cases over time. CONCLUSION: Respiratory infections cause widespread morbidity and mortality throughout northern Syria, particularly with the emergence of SARS-CoV-2. Strengthened surveillance and access to testing and treatment are critical to manage outbreaks among conflict-affected populations.

Fear among Syrians: A Proposed Cutoff Score for the Arabic Fear of COVID-19 Scale.

COVID-19 pandemic has led to psychological health issues one of which is fear. This study validates the Arabic version of the fear of COVID-19 scale and suggests a new cutoff score to measure fear of COVID-19 among the Syrian Population. A total of 3989 participants filled an online survey consisting of socio-demographic information, the fear of COVID-19 scale, the patient health questionnaire 9-item, and the generalized anxiety disorder 7-item. Receiver operating characteristic analysis was used to define cutoff scores for the fear of COVID-19 scale in relation to generalized anxiety disorder 7-item and the patient health questionnaire 9-item. The Cronbach α value of the Arabic fear of COVID-19 scale was 0.896, revealing good stability and internal consistency. The inter-item correlations were between [0.420-0.868] and the corrected item-total correlations were between [0.614-0.768]. A cutoff point of 17.5 was deduced from the analysis. According to the deduced cutoff point, 2111(52.9%) were categorized as extreme fear cases. This cutoff score deduced from this study can be used for screening purposes to distinguish community members that may be prone to developing extreme fear of COVID-19. Therefore, early preventive and supportive measures can then be delivered.

The prevalence of non-communicable diseases among Syrian refugees in Syria's neighbouring host countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Alarming rates of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) have been observed in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) where most refugees reside. There is concern Syrian refugees may experience significant NCD-related health needs, which have significant health implications, including in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, and which must be addressed by health systems in neighbouring host countries. Although primary studies on this topic exist, there has been no comprehensive synthesis of the existing evidence base. The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to synthesise evidence on the prevalence of NCDs among Syrian refugees residing in neighbouring host countries. STUDY DESIGN: This was a systematic review and meta-analysis. METHODS: The review was carried out in line with PRISMA guidelines (PROSPERO CRD420201970430). MEDLINE, CINAHL, EMBASE and PubMed databases were searched from 1 January 2011 to 1 November 2021. Peer-reviewed studies reporting prevalence data on the five most common NCDs among adult Syrian refugees living in Turkey, Lebanon or Jordan were included. Methodological quality was assessed using the Joanna Briggs Institute critical appraisal checklist for prevalence studies. Meta-analysis was carried out to estimate the pooled prevalence of these NCDs in community and primary care settings. RESULTS: A total of 466 citations were identified, 18 of which were included, representing 237,723 Syrian refugees. In community settings, the prevalence of hypertension, diabetes mellitus type II, cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases and arthritis was 24% (95% confidence interval: 17-32), 12% (8-15), 5% (3-7), 4% (3-5) and 11% (7-14), respectively. The prevalence of hypertension 35% (33-36) and diabetes mellitus type II 48% (24-72) were significantly higher in primary care settings. CONCLUSION: The findings demonstrate a high prevalence of NCDs among Syrian refugees. Evidence-based preventive and management interventions for NCDs are needed in this context to address acute health needs during the COVID-19 pandemic and the longer-term health burden of NCDs.

COVID-19 Disease in Syrian Patients With Cancer: Clinical Manifestations, Laboratory Findings, Treatment, and Outcomes.

PURPOSE: This study aims to describe the clinical manifestations, laboratory findings, treatment, and outcomes of patients with cancer with COVID-19 infection in Syria. The primary objective was to identify the overall survival (OS) time, and the secondary objectives were to identify factors associated with severe COVID-19 infection. METHODS: This multicenter retrospective study was undertaken at four hospitals in Damascus, Syria, between March 28, 2020, and March 29, 2021. Data extracted from medical records included clinical manifestations, radiologic findings, laboratory results, treatment, and outcomes. Survival analysis was done by using the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox regression model for follow-up and anticancer treatment patients to study the effect on OS time. The effects of potential risk factors of developing severe COVID-19 were studied by multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: Of 114 patients included, 61 (53.51%) were male. Smokers represented 29 (25.44%), and 63 (55.26%) patients had a history of coexisting chronic diseases. The most common cancer type was breast cancer 17 (14.91%). Sixty-eight (59.65%) patients were receiving anticancer treatment within 1 month of being diagnosed with COVID-19 infection and 46 (40.35%) were outpatient follow-ups. Multiple logistic regression analysis showed that comorbidities (odds ratio: 2.814, P = .044) and anticancer treatment (odds ratio: 8.790, P < .05) were risk factors linked to severe to critical COVID-19 infection. OS time was 245 (95% CI, 217.96 to 272.47) days, lower among patients with cancer with COVID-19 infection receiving anticancer treatment compared with follow-up patients (P value < .05). CONCLUSION: Patients with cancer with COVID-19 infection receiving anticancer treatment had a lower OS time. It may be worth considering stopping anticancer treatment in patients with cancer with COVID-19 when possible in search of better outcomes.

SARS-CoV-2 transmission in opposition-controlled Northwest Syria: modeling pandemic responses during political conflict.

INTRODUCTION: Ten years of conflict has displaced more than half of Northwest Syria's (NWS) population and decimated the health system, water and sanitation, and public health infrastructure vital for infectious disease control. The first NWS COVID-19 case was declared on July 9, 2020, but impact estimations in this region are minimal. With the rollout of vaccination and emergence of the B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant, we aimed to estimate the COVID-19 trajectory in NWS and the potential effects of vaccine coverage and hospital occupancy. METHODS: We conducted a mixed-method study, primarily including modeling projections of COVID-19 transmission scenarios with vaccination strategies using an age-structured, compartmental susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model, supported by data from 20 semi-structured interviews with frontline health workers to help contextualize interpretation of modeling results. RESULTS: Modeling suggested that existing low stringency non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) minimally affected COVID-19 transmission. Maintaining existing NPIs after the Delta variant introduction is predicted to result in a second COVID-19 wave, overwhelming hospital capacity and resulting in a fourfold increased death toll. Simulations with up to 60% vaccination coverage by June 2022 predict that a second wave is not preventable with current NPIs. However, 60% vaccination coverage by June 2022 combined with 50% coverage of mask-wearing and handwashing should reduce the number of hospital beds and ventilators needed below current capacity levels. In the worst-case scenario of a more transmissible and lethal variant emerging by January 2022, the third wave is predicted. CONCLUSION: Total COVID-19 attributable deaths are expected to remain relatively low owing largely to a young population. Given the negative socioeconomic consequences of restrictive NPIs, such as border or school closures for an already deeply challenged population and their relative ineffectiveness in this context, policymakers and international partners should instead focus on increasing COVID-19 vaccination coverage as rapidly as possible and encouraging mask-wearing.

COVID-19 in conflict region: the arab levant response.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 has hit the world in an unprecedented way causing serious repercussions on several aspects of our life. Multiple determinants have affected various nations' level of success in their responses towards the pandemic. The Arab Levant region in the Middle East, notoriously known for repeated wars and conflicts, has been affected, similarly to other regions, by this pandemic. The combination of war, conflict, and a pandemic brings too much of a burden for any nation to handle. METHODS: A descriptive analysis of data obtained from the health departments of various Arab Levant Countries (ALC) was performed. ALC include Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Iraq and Palestine. The data collected involves incidence, recovery rate, case fatality rate and number of tests performed per million population, Global Health Security index, government stringency index, and political stability index. The information obtained was compared and analyzed among the ALC and compared to global figures. An extensive electronic literature search to review all relevant articles and reports published from the region was conducted. The 2019 Global Health Security (GHS) index was obtained from the "GHS index" website which was made by John Hopkins University's center for health security, the Nuclear threat Initiative (NTI) and the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). Government stringency index and political stability index were obtained from the University of Oxford and the website of "The Global Economy", respectively. Other world governance indicators such as government effectiveness were obtained from the World Bank website. RESULTS: In terms of incidence of COVID-19, Iraq has the highest with 9665 per one million population, Syria the lowest at 256 per million. Deaths per million population was highest in Iraq at 237, and the lowest in Syria at 12. As for number of tests per million population, Lebanon ranked first at 136,033 with Iraq fourth at 59,795. There is no data available for the tests administered in Syria and subsequently no value for tests per million population. In terms of recoveries from COVID-19 per million population, Iraq had the highest number at 7903 per million, and Syria the lowest at 68 per million. When compared as percent recovery per million, Palestine ranked first (84%) and Syria last (27%). The government response stringency index shows that Jordan had the highest index (100) early in the pandemic among the other countries. Palestine's index remained stable between 80 and 96. The other countries' indices ranged from 50 to 85, with Lebanon seeing a drop to 24 in mid-August. Even with improved stringency index, Iraq reported an increased number of deaths. CONCLUSION: In countries devastated by war and conflict, a pandemic such as COVID-19 can easily spread. The Arab Levant countries represent a breeding ground for pandemics given their unstable political and economic climate that has undoubtedly affected their healthcare systems. In the era of COVID-19, looking at healthcare systems as well as political determinants is needed to assess a country's readiness towards the pandemic. The unrest in Lebanon, the uprising in Iraq, the restrictions placed on Syria, and the economic difficulties in Palestine are all examples of determinants affecting pandemic management. Jordan, on the contrary, is a good example of a stable state, able to implement proper measures. Political stability index should be used as a predictor for pandemic management capacity, and individual measures should be tailored towards countries depending on their index.

Empowering the crowd: feasible strategies for epidemic management in high-density informal settlements. The case of COVID-19 in Northwest Syria.

More than 1 billion people live in informal settlements worldwide, where precarious living conditions pose unique challenges to managing a COVID-19 outbreak. Taking Northwest Syria as a case study, we simulated an outbreak in high-density informal Internally Displaced Persons (IDP) camps using a stochastic Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered model. Expanding on previous studies, taking social conditions and population health/structure into account, we modelled several interventions feasible in these settings: moderate self-distancing, self-isolation of symptomatic cases and protection of the most vulnerable in 'safety zones'. We considered complementary measures to these interventions that can be implemented autonomously by these communities, such as buffer zones, health checks and carers for isolated individuals, quantifying their impact on the micro-dynamics of disease transmission. All interventions significantly reduce outbreak probability and some of them reduce mortality when an outbreak does occur. Self-distancing reduces mortality by up to 35% if contacts are reduced by 50%. A reduction in mortality by up to 18% can be achieved by providing one self-isolation tent per eight people. Protecting the most vulnerable in a safety zone reduces the outbreak probability in the vulnerable population and has synergistic effects with the other interventions. Our model predicts that a combination of all simulated interventions may reduce mortality by more than 90% and delay an outbreak's peak by almost 2 months. Our results highlight the potential for non-medical interventions to mitigate the effects of the pandemic. Similar measures may be applicable to controlling COVID-19 in other informal settlements, particularly IDP camps in conflict regions, around the world.

The Impact of Armed Conflict on the Epidemiological Situation of COVID-19 in Libya, Syria and Yemen.

Background: Since the Arab uprising in 2011, Libya, Syria and Yemen have gone through major internal armed conflicts. This resulted in large numbers of deaths, injuries, and population displacements, with collapse of the healthcare systems. Furthermore, the situation was complicated by the emergence of COVID-19 as a global pandemic, which made the populations of these countries struggle under unusual conditions to deal with both the pandemic and the ongoing wars. This study aimed to determine the impact of the armed conflicts on the epidemiology of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) within these war-torn countries and highlight the strategies needed to combat the spread of the pandemic and its consequences. Methods: Official and public data concerning the dynamics of the armed conflicts and the spread of SARS-COV-2 in Libya, Syria and Yemen were collected from all available sources, starting from the emergence of COVID-19 in each country until the end of December 2020. Datasets were analyzed by a set of statistical techniques and the weekly resolved data were used to probe the link between the intensity levels of the conflict and the prevalence of COVID-19. Results: The data indicated that there was an increase in the intensity of the violence at an early stage from March to August 2020, when it approximately doubled in the three countries, particularly in Libya. During that period, few cases of COVID-19 were reported, ranging from 5 to 53 cases/day. From September to December 2020, a significant decline in the intensity of the armed conflicts was accompanied by steep upsurges in the rate of COVID-19 cases, which reached up to 500 cases/day. The accumulative cases vary from one country to another during the armed conflict. The highest cumulative number of cases were reported in Libya, Syria and Yemen. Conclusions: Our analysis demonstrates that the armed conflict provided an opportunity for SARS-CoV-2 to spread. The early weeks of the pandemic coincided with the most intense period of the armed conflicts, and few cases were officially reported. This indicates undercounting and hidden spread during the early stage of the pandemic. The pandemic then spread dramatically as the armed conflict declined, reaching its greatest spread by December 2020. Full-blown transmission of the COVID-19 pandemic in these countries is expected. Therefore, urgent national and international strategies should be implemented to combat the pandemic and its consequences.

Leveraging community mortality indicators to infer COVID-19 mortality and transmission dynamics in Damascus, Syria.

The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in substantial mortality worldwide. However, to date, countries in the Middle East and Africa have reported considerably lower mortality rates than in Europe and the Americas. Motivated by reports of an overwhelmed health system, we estimate the likely under-ascertainment of COVID-19 mortality in Damascus, Syria. Using all-cause mortality data, we fit a mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission to reported mortality, estimating that 1.25% of COVID-19 deaths (sensitivity range 1.00% - 3.00%) have been reported as of 2 September 2020. By 2 September, we estimate that 4,380 (95% CI: 3,250 - 5,550) COVID-19 deaths in Damascus may have been missed, with 39.0% (95% CI: 32.5% - 45.0%) of the population in Damascus estimated to have been infected. Accounting for under-ascertainment corroborates reports of exceeded hospital bed capacity and is validated by community-uploaded obituary notifications, which confirm extensive unreported mortality in Damascus.

Mental Distress and Psychological Disorders Related to COVID-19 Mandatory Lockdown.

Background: Lockdown restrictions due to COVID-19 have affected many people's lifestyles and ability to earn a living. They add further distress to the lives of people in Syria, who have already endured 9 years of war. This study evaluates distress and the major causes of concerns related to COVID-19 during the full lockdown. Methods: Online questionnaires were distributed using SPTSS, K10, and MSPSS which were used with other demographic, war- and COVID-19-related questions that were taken from The (CRISIS) V0.1 Adult Self-Report Baseline Form. Results: Our sample included 5,588 with the mean age of 26.84 ± 7.815 years. Of those, only one case of COVID-19 was confirmed. Over 42.7% had two or more positive PTSD symptoms, 42.6% had moderate or severe mental disorder, but only 14.9% had low social support. Higher PTSD and K10 scores overall were seen in female participants and with most of war variables (P < 0.05). Relationships with the partner being negatively affected and distress from a decline in ability to work and provide food were the most prominent. Conclusions: The indirect effects of COVID-19 are far more than that of the pathogen itself. A reduced ability to earn and to provide food were the main concerns indicated in this study. Relationships deteriorated in participants with high K10 and PTSD scores who also had more symptoms and used more hypnotics in the last four weeks. Smoking patterns were not related to K10 and PTSD. Social support played a role in reducing stress, but when relationships were affected, lower support was observed.